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Weekly sales bounce back after two weeks of declines

By
June 02, 2010 9:19 AM

NEW YORK (June 2, 2010) – As consumers enjoyed a long holiday weekend so did retailers as retail sales bounced back slightly after two weeks of declines.

For the final week of the fiscal month, which ended May 29, weekly sales improved by 0.6%, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs weekly sales index. On a year-over-year basis sales also improved and rose by 2.5%.

"Warmer seasonal weather helped propel apparel-store demand in the final week of the fiscal month," said Michael Niemira, ICSC director of research and chief economist.

"For the month as a whole, sales were affected negatively by cooler temperatures than in recent years and a calendar-shift that pushed Memorial Day sales into the June fiscal month this year versus in May last year. For this reason ICSC Research continues to expect industry comparable-store sales for May to increase by between 2.0% - 2.5% compared with the same month of 2009," Niemira added.

Please note that ICSC will be releasing monthly retail sales figures for May on Thursday, June 3, 2010.

The Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot is produced by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs. This index measures U.S. nominal same-store or comparable-store sales excluding restaurant and vehicle demand.

About the index

The weekly index is constructed as a sales-weighted geometric average growth rate to preserve long-term consistency and is statistically benchmarked to a broad-based monthly retail industry sales aggregate that currently represents approximately 40 retail chain stores, which also is compiled by ICSC. A representative sample of those major retailers has been used as a control group to extrapolate the weekly sales index.

As such, the weekly index statistically represents industry sales and is not just a sum of sales for a handful of retailers. The standard period used for the index is Sunday through Saturday, even though some retailers use a different weekly accounting period. The weekly sales index is presented on an adjusted basis to account for normal seasonality and to counter other data anomalies.

Weekly seasonal adjustment is at best difficult for chain store sales given that retailers can and often do shift promotions to counter typical shifts in the calendar. Nonetheless, the approach to weekly seasonal adjustment used follows from the Piser Method, which was popular in the early 1930s and became the standard for weekly adjustment.

About Goldman Sachs

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a bank holding company and a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm. Goldman Sachs provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high net worth individuals. Founded in 1869, the firm is headquartered in New York and maintains offices in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Hong Kong and other major financial centers around the world.

About ICSC

Founded in 1957, ICSC is the premier global trade association of the shopping center industry. Its 57,000 members in over 90 countries include shopping center owners, developers, managers, marketing specialists, investors, retailers and brokers, as well as academics and public officials.

 


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