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MOSS ADAMS CAPITAL: Apparel and foowear market monitor highlights notable deals, stock prices and results.
Details on Industry Insight.
The numbers may look grim, but several retailers said January sales met expectations or were a little better than forecast. The Buckle, Urban Outfitters and American Apparel continue to outperform competitors.
PacSun's in-house Bullhead denim brand continues to drive business at the industry's largest customer.
January: down 11 percent. Comps were negative in each of the four weeks.
Apparel: up 9 percent
Guys apparel: flat. Strength in Bullhead Denim, weakness in T's and fleece.
Girls apparel: up 18 percent. Strength in tops and Bullhead denim.
Accessories and footwear: down 66 percent.
No. of transactions: up high teens
Avg. value of sale: down mid-20s
Q4: down 10 percent
Fiscal 2008: down 5 percent
Inventory: 85 percent of the inventory now at PacSun is less than 90 days old.
Guidance: PacSun reaffirmed its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter and full year.
Other news: PacSun said it will no longer report monthly sales. Instead, it will report sales trends quarterly. Macy's did the same thing last year, but then reversed its decision and is reporting monthly sales again. Urban Outfitters reports quarterly sales only and holiday sales for the months of November and December.
It appears some consumers continue to shop, particularly at The Buckle.
January: up 14.7 percent
Guys total sales: up 11.5 percent
Guys price points: up 11.5 percent
Strong categories: denim, woven and knit shirts
Women's total sales: up 30.5 percent
Women's price points: up 6.5 percent
Strong categories: denim, knit tops, accessories.
Accessories (both genders): up 18.5 percent
Footwear (both genders): down 8 percent
Q4: up 14.3 percent
Fiscal 2008: up 20.6 percent
Note: The Buckle sent out an email blast today announcing it is now carrying Nixon watches. The email featured photos of 12 different watches.
Urban Outfitter stores also continue to outperform competitors.
Q4 company-wide: down 1 percent
Q4 Urban Outfitters: up 3 percent
Q4 Anthropologie: down 6 percent
Q4 Free People: down 13 percent
Fiscal 2008 companywide: up 8 percent
January: up 2 percent
January: down 4.5 percent
Q4: down 7 percent, slightly better than the negative 7.5 percent forecast
Fiscal 2008: down 4.6 percent
Inventories: down 7.4 percent at year end
January: down 11.4 percent
Strong categories: women's and juniors apparel, cosmetics
Strong regions: South, Mid-Atlantic, Northwest
Q4: down 12.5 percent
Fiscal 2008: down 9 percent
Note: Nordstrom Rack (outlet) stores recorded comp store declines in January and the fourth quarter.
Industry competitor A & F continues to pay the price for not discounting.
January companywide: down 20 percent
Abercrombie & Fitch stores: down 16 percent
Abercrombie stores: down 24 percent
Hollister: down 24 percent
Ruehl: down 17 percent
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